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Bitcoin bulls are facing $21,000 sellers as Bitcoin price wipes out losses caused by the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision.

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Ezekiel Welsh
By Ezekiel WelshUpdated on: September 21, 2023

Key points:

  • Data from TradingView followed BTC/USD, which surged overnight, hitting a new daily high of $20,683 on the Bitstamp exchange.
  • Although this is a lower high so far on the hourly time frame compared to the peaks on Nov. 1 and 2, the move helps erase losses from the Fed's decision to raise rates.
  • Material Indicators, which provides order book data, also found that buy-side orders are fickle friends when it comes to support in the order book. 
  • Trader Game of Trades noted that Smart Money Confidence (SMC), a sentiment indicator traditionally used for stocks, is now at "all-time highs."

Bitcoin rallied to $21,000 on Nov. 4 as bulls tried to reclaim lost ground.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Data from TradingView followed BTC/USD, which surged overnight, hitting a new daily high of $20,683 on the Bitstamp exchange.

The $21,000 sales wall turned out to be ugly

Although this is a lower high so far on the hourly time frame compared to the peaks on Nov. 1 and 2, the move helps erase losses from the Fed's decision to raise rates.

However, with stock sellers piling up requests at this level, the potential for a push above $21,000 is limited.

"If you want to sell, place your order under $21,000," Onchain Edge, a contributor to analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in part of a tweet.

BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Onchain Edge/ Twitter

BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Onchain Edge/ Twitter

Material Indicators, which provides order book data, also found that buy-side orders are fickle friends when it comes to support in the order book. 

"That's why I don't believe in a new heavyweight bitcoin buying wall," it commented.

BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn added that market sell orders “still dominate” in the current setup.

“Nothing has really changed other than a drop in Bitcoin’s price,” read part of a Twitter comment that day.

Bitcoin net take buy/sell volume chart. Source: Maartunn/ Twitter

Bitcoin net take buy/sell volume chart. Source: Maartunn/ Twitter

Equity Analyst: "Big guys are loading up"

Beyond cryptocurrencies, one analyst pointed to a potential silver lining for risk assets more broadly in the current environment.

Game of Trades noted that Smart Money Confidence (SMC), a sentiment indicator traditionally used for stocks, is now at "all-time highs."

The high SMC reading coincides with the outperformance of the S&P 500, and given Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets, there may be reasons to be optimistic given the current reading of 0.61.

SMC reached a high of 0.78 in late September and needs to continue its recovery.

"The big boys are charging. Confidence in smart money is at an all-time high," concluded the Game of Trades. 

Smart money confidence annotated chart. Source: Games of Trades/ Twitter

Smart money confidence annotated chart. Source: Games of Trades/ Twitter

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