Funding rates suggests a new BTC lows

Key points:

• Crypto Tony doubled down on a  Bitcoin's price to $10,000 and below on his list of potential "surrender targets," while revealing expectations for Ether to drop to $300.
• Daan Crypto Trades puts the current spot price at the low end of the range where BTC bulls must “hold” for any chance of an upside.
• “The market as a whole looks bad... some altcoins look even worse,” continued Crypto’s Il Capo, predicting imminent altcoin losses of up to 90%.
• "The long/short ratio is positive for the first time since May, meaning bulls are now outnumbering bears, OI and Funding are positive, meaning people are betting on a perpetual market that will drive BTC higher, and the price structure looks bad, this could easily become another local top and dump. Be careful!" concluded popular commentator aQua.
• Blockware principal analyst Joe Burnett offered a slightly more hopeful view, arguing that a painful period in Bitcoin's history is slowly coming to an end.

Bitcoin staged a modest recovery on Dec. 29 as U.S. stocks rose in tandem.

BTC/USD 1H chart (Bitstamp). Source - TradingView

$10,000 BTC price target is still in place

At the open on Wall Street, BTC/USD rebounded above $16,600 after falling below $16,500 for a second day, data from TradingView showed.

The pair remains unattractive to traders, many of whom worry about a possible deeper retracement around the New Year.

Crypto Tony doubled down on a  Bitcoin's price to $10,000 and below on his list of potential "surrender targets," while revealing expectations for Ether to drop to $300.

"Things change quickly, but when we get to those areas, I start to lead the way," reads part of the accompanying commentary.

Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades puts the current spot price at the low end of the range where BTC bulls must “hold” for any chance of an upside.

BTC/USD chart. Source - Daan Crypto Trades [Twitter]

“The market as a whole looks bad... some altcoins look even worse,” continued Crypto’s Il Capo, predicting imminent altcoin losses of up to 90%.

On Dec. 29, derivatives markets supported the downside thesis, with funding rates positive and price action flat.

"In layman's terms, the long/short ratio is positive for the first time since May, meaning bulls are now outnumbering bears, OI and Funding are positive, meaning people are betting on a perpetual market that will drive BTC higher, and the price structure looks bad, this could easily become another local top and dump. Be careful!" concluded popular commentator aQua.

BTC/USD perpetual futures chart with Long-to-Short ratio. Source - aQua [Twitter]

Blockware principal analyst Joe Burnett offered a slightly more hopeful view, arguing that a painful period in Bitcoin's history is slowly coming to an end.

“Everyone is bearish, but bitcoin is still trading at the same price it was in June ($17,500),” he argued.

“The mining industry has been decimated, and many of the weak hands (BTC and ASICs) have been purged. Soon we will begin another slow ascent.”

Dollar strength 'want to bounce" 

The short-term price trend of BTC was boosted by US stocks. The S&P 500 index rose 1.4% in the first hour of opening, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 2.1%.

The U.S. dollar continues to consolidate after a two-day winning streak in the U.S. dollar index (DXY).

“Bitcoin sweeps lows of 16.5k fills FVG and has several bullish H1 divergences on 3rd push. Bulls now or never recover,” commented entrepreneur Mark Callan.

“Lose the 16.2k level and the yearly low will be in threat & lower + $DXY looks like it wants to bounce!”

DXY 1D chart. Source - TradingView

Data from Coinglass confirms that with just two days to go until the weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly closes, BTC/USD is down about 60% year-to-date, down 3% in December and 14.2% in the fourth quarter.

BTC/USD monthly returns. Source - Coinglass