The record miss of Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin price model - PlanB brushes off FTX 'blip'

Key points:

• Bitcoin is now farther than ever from its stock-to-flow (S2F) price target.
• The model uses the block subsidy halving event as a central element in charting exponential price growth over the years.
• According to the dedicated monitoring resource S2F Multiple, Bitcoin should be trading just above $72,000 on Nov. 19.
• “Feels like the end of the world, but in the long run, FTX may just be a blip,” PlanB said on Twitter.

The latest data shows that BTC/USD has deviated from planned price growth on an unprecedented scale.

Stock-to-flow hits grim new record

An already bearish trend will only intensify as BTC prices continue to be suppressed in the face of the FTX scandal.

This has implications for many core aspects of the bitcoin network, notably miners, but some of its most prominent metrics are also feeling the strain.

These include S2F, which has found itself facing increasing pressure and criticism for its price predictions.

The model, which remained popular until Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in November 2021, uses the block subsidy halving event as a central element in charting exponential price growth over the years.

S2F allows for significant price deviations and is not "all up" - but even taking these into account, the current target is well above the spot price.

According to the dedicated monitoring resource S2F Multiple, Bitcoin should be trading just above $72,000 on Nov. 19, a multiple of -1.47.

On November 10, the multiplier reached -1.5 - a negative record in the S2F lifetime, due to the FTX impact entering the market.

PlanB: "It feels like the end of the world"

Alternative iterations of deviations from analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin’s S2F model led to similar conclusions about this month’s price action.

“Prices are now lower than ever before the S2F line,” its creator Philip Swift wrote in an accompanying Twitter post.

"The current differential is -1.26 compared to the all-time low of -1.21 in 2011."

Still, PlanB, the anonymous analyst responsible for creating — and now defending — S2F remains cool about its usefulness.

“Feels like the end of the world, but in the long run, FTX may just be a blip,” he said in his tweet.

PlanB launched increasingly fierce allegations against the model in 2022, including claims that its foundations were fraudulent.

Addressing the growing discrepancy between target and spot prices, he noted that even the relatively large price range over which the model can remain effective is more useful than no insight at all.